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A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   
64.
淤泥质潮流深槽最大冲刷深度的一个概念模型   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
以概念模式方法计算了淤泥质潮流深槽的最大深度,探讨了涨落潮流速、涨落潮历时、深槽淤泥质物质粒径、深槽顶底部原始深度、水道长度等因素对潮流深槽最大深度的影响。概念模式的假设条件是:(1)深槽形态为长方体,底部纵向坡度为0;(2)沉积物粒径无垂向变化;(3)只考虑潮流作用的影响,涨、落潮流速在时间序列上呈正弦分布;(4)不考虑细颗粒物质的粘性和絮凝作用。模拟结果显示:(1)涨、落潮历时对深槽最大深度的影响很小。(2)优势潮流流速与最大深槽深度之间存在着幂函数关系。(3)深槽的底质粒径、深槽的长度均与最大冲刷深度呈正相关关系。(4)深槽顶部水深与最大深度呈负相关关系。(5)由于潮汐水道深度与潮流流速和沉积物侵蚀强度之间具有负反馈关系,因此水道冲刷存在着一个极限,即最终可以达到均衡状态。潮流深槽的均衡态特征和达到均衡态所需的时间可运用沉积动力学方法来确定;同时,若应用深槽的真实参数,进一步减少模型的假设条件,可望使该模型具有实际的应用价值。  相似文献   
65.
以天津新港三维城市建模为例,介绍了基于二维数据、DEM和3D模型等多源数据的三维城市建模的方法和关键技术。为有效利用现有数据资源快速、准确建立三维城市模型提供了一种经济、灵活、省时、高效的方法。  相似文献   
66.
Chirp sub-bottom profilers are marine acoustic devices that use a known and repeatable source signature (1–24 kHz) to produce decimetre vertical resolution cross-sections of the sub-seabed. Here the design and development of the first true 3D Chirp system is described. When developing the design, critical factors that had to be considered included spatial aliasing, and precise positioning of sources and receivers. Full 3D numerical modelling of the combined source and receiver directivity was completed to determine optimal source and receiver geometries. The design incorporates four source transducers (1.5–13 kHz) that can be arranged into different configurations, including Maltese Cross, a square and two separated pairs. The receive array comprises 240 hydrophones in 60 groups whose group-centres are separated by 25 cm in both horizontal directions, with each hydrophone group containing four individual elements and a pre-amplifier. After careful consideration, it was concluded that the only way to determine with sufficient accuracy the source–receiver geometry, was to fix the sources and receivers within a rigid array. Positional information for the array is given by a Real Time Kinematic GPS and attitude system incorporating four antennas to give position, heading, pitch and roll. It is shown that this system offers vertical positioning accuracy with a root-mean-square (rms) error less than 2.6 cm, while the horizontal positioning rms error was less than 2.0 cm. The system is configured so that the Chirp source signature can be chosen by software aboard the acquisition vessel. The complete system is described and initial navigational and seismic data results are presented. These data demonstrate that the approach of using fixed source-receiver geometry combined with RTK navigation can provide complete 3D imaging of the sub-surface.  相似文献   
67.
海坛海峡二维潮流场数值模拟   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
海坛海峡为南北狭长型海峡,海峡内潮波属于前进波.本文建立了平面二维浅水波数学方程,利用欧拉-拉格朗日差分方法得到数值解,模型采用随时间变化的动边界技术,成功地模拟了海坛海峡的前进波特征,并根据实测数据进行了验证.同时计算了同潮时线和等振幅线,不同时刻的潮流场和潮流平均流速分布.计算结果表明,北部湾口M2分潮高潮时间比南部湾口早约5~6min,等振幅线范围约为2.12~2.15m.海峡内流速分布呈南北强、中间弱的特点,最大流速1m/s左右.  相似文献   
68.
三维符号构成及建模方法研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
许敏  刘宁  丛凤波 《海洋测绘》2006,26(2):45-48
随着计算机软硬件技术和三维可视化技术的快速发展,二维平面电子地图正在向直观、形象的三维电子地图方向过渡,而原来的二维地图符号已难以满足三维场景逼真性的要求,它必然要求与之配套的三维符号理论和技术的产生。由于三维符号如何构成及怎样标注尚无标准可遵循,在对三维符号的构成、分类及建模方法进行分析的基础上,提出了实体模型符号的两种建模方法,实验表明它们切实可行,能较好地表达三维实体模型。  相似文献   
69.
Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys.  相似文献   
70.
A comprehensive numerical study on the three-dimensional structure of a turbulent jet in crossflow is performed. The jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio (R) varies in the range of 2 - 16; both vertical jets and inclined jets without excess streamwise momentum are considered. The numerical results of the Standard two-equation k-ε model show that the turbulent structure can be broadly categorised according to the jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio. For strong to moderate jet discharges, i.e. R> 4, the jet is characterized by a longitudinal transition through a bent-over phase during which the jet becomes almost parallel with the main freestream, to a sectional vortex-pair flow with double concentration maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless distance of around 20-60. The similarity coefficients are only weakly dependent on R. The cross-section scalar field is kidney-shaped and bifurcated, vvith distinct double concentr  相似文献   
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